London's Airports will be full by 2030

According to the Times today, London's Airports will be full by 2030

This follows publication of the UK aviation forecasts 2011 by the DFT which states that Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted will be running at full capacity by 2030

There is a real prospect of longer queues, increased stacking of aircraft and increases in the associated costs to industry and shows that we need a real debate on the future capacity in the south East. The Times is using this to push it's own agenda for a new Airport in the Thames Estuary which would be phenomenally expensive & unlikely when there is room to grow at the existing Airports.

The DfT predict that the number of passengers flying through Britain would climb from 211 million last year to 335 million in 2030. Demand for international business travel is expected to rise by 80 per cent by 2030.

Total passenger numbers are predicted to more than double to 470 million by 2050 despite average annual growth of 2 per cent, well below the 3.7 per cent of growth during the past 20 years. All growth is anticipated to be at regional airports after 2040.

As you would imagine, the aviation industry has warned that a significant downgrading of the overall passenger growth forecast risked undermining the economic recovery.

The British Air Transport Association said that a 25 per cent reduction in the 2030 forecast, compared with figures released in 2009, could cost the economy £10 billion over the next 20 years while Virgin Atlantic has warned that tourist spending in Britain would fall sharply if a forecast decline of three million visits to the UK by 2030 was accurate.

Carolyn McCall, chief executive of easyJet, said: "Given that any new runway would take over ten years to plan and build, time is running out for the Government to get a grip on aviation policy."

When asked how the Government would address capacity, Theresa Villiers, the Aviation Minister, said: "We are committed to developing a new policy framework for aviation which supports economic growth while also reflecting the environmental impacts of flying ... We are currently seeking views from the industry on the key issues we need to address."

If you would like to contribute to the debate on the future of aviation then please contact me with your views.

　

 

The Report can be accessed here:

http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/uk-aviation-forecasts-2011